Islamic Republic of Iran Islamic Republic of Iran

Slightly declining from last year’s CCPI, the Islamic Republic of Iran is now ranked 62nd and, thus, in the CCPI 2022 bottom four.

A look into what comprises the overall very low performance finds a similar picture to last year, in very low performance in the GHG Emissions, Renewable Energy, and Energy Use categories. Iran performs very low in almost all indicators of these three categories, indicating both very poor current levels and no signs of improvement in the near future.

In national climate policy, Iran receives a medium rating. Regarding renewable energy, the country does have measures to strengthen technologies, including feed-in tariffs and financial support for the private sector. In the framework of the Development Plan, Iran also plans to increase the share of renewables to 5% of the country’s capacity (in 2019, 0.7% of the total primary energy supply was generated from renewable sources) and reduce gas flaring by 90% by the end of 2021. In this regard, however, only slow progress in renewable energy expansion can be observed. Moreover, the country had plans to cut energy consumption in the building sector by 5% in 2021. The CCPI experts criticise these mitigation measures as too unambitious and short-term-oriented. Furthermore, not even the mentioned goals are expected to be achieved, because of weak implementation.

Regarding international climate policy, experts urgently call for Iran to ratify the Paris Agreement and to formulate a more ambitious Nationally Determined Contribution than its current Intended Nationally Determined Contribution.

National experts that contributed to the policy evaluation of this year’s CCPI chose to remain anonymous.

Technical note: how to read the target comparison graph

The graph above shows the development of a country over the past years compared with its Paris compatible pathway and 2030 target. For all three quantitative categories of the CCPI, this visualisation gives an overview of where a country is right now, where it would need to be to fulfil the Paris Agreement promises and where it aims to be in 2030.

For GHG emissions per capita, the data includes LULUCF, as used for the emissions per capita indicator. This leads to the vast changes in emissions of some countries with high forest coverage. The calculation of individual country target pathways is based on the common but differentiated convergence approach (CDC). It is based on the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities” laid forth in the Framework Convention on Climate Change. All Annex I countries therefore have a decreasing pathway from 1990 onwards, starting at that year’s emissions. 60 years later, in 2050, these countries are expected to reach net zero emissions. All other countries, which did not reach the level of global average emissions in 1990, are allowed to increase emissions until the average is reached. But by latest 2015 these countries, too, have decreasing pathways and 60 years to reach net zero. These pathways start from the global average.

The Renewable Energy data is given in per cent of Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) and includes hydro energy, consistent with the respective CCPI indicator. As global distribution of Renewables (especially solar and wind) only started in the 2000s, the pathways in this category start in 2010. All countries have an equal goal: 100% Renewables in 2050, each starting from its 2010 value.

For Energy Use the Primary Energy Supply per capita is shown. All pathways for this category start at country’s 1990 values and meet at global average of 80 gigajoules per capita in TPES. For 2°C and 1.5°C scenarios, a decrease in emissions by reducing the (growth in) energy use is as crucial as deploying renewable (or other low-carbon) technologies. The IPCC carried out a scenario comparison using a large number of integrated assessment models. From the scenarios available, we observe that the total amount of global energy use in 2050 has to be roughly the same level or a bit higher than it is today, with a margin of uncertainty. At the same time population will grow slightly between today and 2050. We therefore pragmatically chose the well-below-2° compatible benchmark to be “same energy use per capita in 2050 as the current global average”, which is 80 gigajoules per capita in TPES.

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