Brazil

Brazil ranks 27th in the CCPI, up one spot and staying among the medium-performing countries. As in previous years, Brazil shows a mixed performance across the main CCPI categories. It earns a high rating for Climate Policy, a medium for Renewable Energy and Energy Use, and a very low for GHG Emissions.

Since President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took office in January 2023, Brazil’s overall climate policy has improved. The CCPI country experts recognise Lula’s progressive diplomacy on climate. Brazil has taken up the large task of hosting G20 and setting up the G20 Climate Task Force (TF-CLIMA), as well as hosting the BRICS summit and now the 2025 UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) in Belém. Despite internal contradictions, Brazil has sought to occupy a climate leadership position. The country has seen an overall deforestation reduction and increase in renewable electricity. However, the political decision to open an oil exploration front at the mouth of the Amazon is a negative.

NDC and climate finance mechanism show ambition, but enforcement is called into question

The new NDC submitted in November 2024 is more ambitious, calling for a 67% greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction by 2035 vs 2005 levels, which is not in line with Brazil’s fair share of mitigation for a 1.5°C world. It also reaffirms the national commitment to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. The experts criticise the gap the absence of a Long-Term Strategy (LTS) creates, weakening the submitted NDC’s credibility.

Brazil is also advancing the Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF), an investment-based climate finance mechanism for rewarding conservation of tropical forests and supporting indigenous peoples. The experts consider it promising as a new source of funds, yet it remains under design and has drawn criticism from some socio-environmental groups.

The experts mention the resumption of the successful Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Legal Amazon (PPCDAm), affecting the country’s GHG emissions. In 2024, deforestation in the Amazon fell by 28% and in the Cerrado by 25%. Deforestation alerts were below 2024 levels in both biomes, putting Brazil on track to meet its 2025 NDC target. Despite this progress, the experts criticise the NDC revision because of its lack of transparency and stakeholder participation. They also mention uncertainty regarding the proposed measures’ effectiveness and the capacity for enforcement.

Fossil dependence shows no signs of abatement, despite renewable energy gains

The experts view growth in renewables favourably, as over the past 2 years, solar and wind increased by 70% – from 51 GW to 86.8 GW, mostly owing to small-scale generation. However, they say that the grid system remains inadequate and is approaching its current technical limit for variable renewable integration. They also mention the National Energy Transition Policy (PNTE), which lacks a timeline and budget and has no regulations for energy storage systems. Meanwhile, wind projects in the northeast were questioned in court for human rights violations because of their unfair effect on local communities.

Despite renewable energy gains, Brazil’s reliance on fossil fuels remains the main contradiction to its climate policy. No political will exists at the national or sub-national level for reducing fossil fuel extraction. The government continues to push for opening new oil and gas frontiers in the Equatorial Margin, including the oil expansion at the mouth of the Amazon. Fossil fuel subsidies amount to USD 15.1 billion annually, while the coal subsidy package originally set to expire in 2040 was extended to 2050. Petrobras has also confirmed plans to remain one of the world’s largest producers and new oil licensing has been accelerated through fast-track procedures. The country is among the 10 countries with the largest developed oil reserves, and it currently plans to increase its gas and oil production.

The experts advocate for comprehensive sustainable development plans for the Amazon region and other biomes to ensure the end of deforestation. They also seek a strategy for the phase-out of fossil fuels and their subsidies, including a financial plan for securing 100% renewables by 2050. And they want to see a commitment to halting new exploration projects incompatible with a 1.5°C pathway.

Key Outcomes

CCPI experts

The following national experts agreed to be mentioned as contributors for this year’s CCPI:

• Ricardo Baitelo , Claudio Angelo, David Tsai & Stela Herschmann (Observatório do Clima / (Instituto de Energia e Meio Ambiente)
• Instituto Talanoa
• Dr. William Wills (Brazilian Climate Center)
• Carlos Rittl (University of Ceara & FUNCEME)