Portugal

Portugal is a high performer in this year’s CCPI, ranking 15th. The country receives a high rating in GHG Emissions, and medium in Energy Use, Renewable Energy, and Climate Policy.

The National Climate Law indicates Portugal must achieve a 55% emissions reduction by 2030 compared with 2005 levels, for an annual reduction of almost 5%. However, in 2022, Portugal’s GHG emissions (excluding land use, land-use change, and forestry [LULUCF]) increased 0.1% from 2021, when the reduction was already only 2.8%.

Revised, Stronger Targets, but Some Still Fall Short

In June 2023, Portugal’s government submitted a revised draft of the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) to the European Commission. The overall emissions reduction target for 2030, previously set at 45–55%, was revised to 55% in accordance with the National Climate Law requirements. In August 2024, a new revised draft was made available for public consultation. In this iteration, the long-term target was updated, bringing forward the climate neutrality target from 2050 to 2045. The Long-Term Strategy is undergoing revision to align with the revised NECP draft.

Moreover, the renewable energy aim was revised and is now more ambitious. The plan’s initial version aimed for an installed capacity of 30.5–32 GW of the renewable energy system by 2030. The current version aims for 48 GW. However, part of the increase is from expansion of wind and solar to produce hydrogen (H2) for exportation – a highly energy inefficient process. Thus, this additional installed renewable energy capacity does not substantially translate into emissions reductions.

The CCPI country experts assess that while the proposed 2045 climate neutrality target is a positive step, it falls short of the 1.5°C Paris goal. A 2040 target is needed for alignment.

National Climate Law Needs Greater Ambition in Some Areas

As in previous years, Portugal should increase its efforts in the transport sector. Few cities have sustainable urban mobility plans (Lisbon, for example, lacks one), and automobiles remain the dominant mode of urban and extra-urban transport. Train and public transport use generally remain extremely low, according to the experts. Road transport emissions have been increasing, counter to what is needed.

The experts also note that the National Climate Law lacks ambition in some chapters, such as the end of fossil fuel subsidies planned only for 2030.

Internationally, Portugal is usually a frontrunner, taking ambitious positions during international climate negotiations. Despite this, given its low economic weight, Portugal’s capacity to influence other EU Member States is limited.

The experts’ main demand is that Portugal addresses the continuing need for better and more effective public policies to decarbonise the transport and agricultural sectors, and fully enforces the National Climate Law. Such actions would help fulfil the potential to significantly improve climate governance in Portugal.

Key Outcomes

CCPI Experts

The following national experts agreed to be mentioned as contributors for this year’s CCPI:

• Pedro Nunes (ZERO – Association for the Earth System Sustainability)