Ukraine Ukraine

Ukraine holds its rank of 20th in this year’s CCPI and is rated as a medium performer.

In the GHG Emissions and Renewable Energy categories, Ukraine shows a medium performance, while rating low for Climate Policy (national and international). With the president’s announcement of a national net zero target by 2060 (in March 2021) and the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC; announced in July 2021), the Ukraine government had released two targets in 2021 as of the time of this publication. The NDC suggests, by 2030, a 35% GHG emissions reduction compared with the 1990 level. However, CCPI experts who evaluated the policy criticise the government’s lacking a roadmap for how to achieve these goals.

For reducing GHG emissions, the government applied a carbon price that, according to the experts, is too low and needs to substantially increase. The current share of renewable energy in the primary energy supply, at 2.9%, rates very low.

Renewable energy, however, is on the rise, as can be observed in the trend indicator. The experts support the Ukrainian feed-in-tariff scheme for renewable energy, one of the highest in Europe, but criticise ex-post curtailment of the FIT, as it misses further options for renewable energy development. They also criticise an unclear perspective for decentralised renewable energy generation under the new planned auction and/or feed-in premium system. Moreover, the experts urge the government to announce an ambitious time schedule for coal phase-out and call for a strategy and roadmap to increase energy efficiency in industry. Until now, only the residential sector has had such programs at work, and they are severely underfinanced. In the transport sector, cancelling taxation of electric cars is seen as a major improvement.

The following national experts agreed to be mentioned as contributors for this year’s CCPI: Ecoclub NGO, Oksana Aliieva (Heinrich Boell Foundation), Ukrainian Climate Network

Technical note: how to read the target comparison graph

The graph above shows the development of a country over the past years compared with its Paris compatible pathway and 2030 target. For all three quantitative categories of the CCPI, this visualisation gives an overview of where a country is right now, where it would need to be to fulfil the Paris Agreement promises and where it aims to be in 2030.

For GHG emissions per capita, the data includes LULUCF, as used for the emissions per capita indicator. This leads to the vast changes in emissions of some countries with high forest coverage.
The calculation of individual country target pathways is based on the common but differentiated convergence approach (CDC). It is based on the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities” laid forth in the Framework Convention on Climate Change. All Annex I countries therefore have a decreasing pathway from 1990 onwards, starting at that year’s emissions. 60 years later, in 2050, these countries are expected to reach net zero emissions. All other countries, which did not reach the level of global average emissions in 1990, are allowed to increase emissions until the average is reached. But by latest 2015 these countries, too, have decreasing pathways and 60 years to reach net zero. These pathways start from the global average.

The Renewable Energy data is given in per cent of Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) and includes hydro energy, consistent with the respective CCPI indicator. As global distribution of Renewables (especially solar and wind) only started in the 2000s, the pathways in this category start in 2010. All countries have an equal goal: 100% Renewables in 2050, each starting from its 2010 value.

For Energy Use the Primary Energy Supply per capita is shown. All pathways for this category start at country’s 1990 values and meet at global average of 80 gigajoules per capita in TPES.
For 2°C and 1.5°C scenarios, a decrease in emissions by reducing the (growth in) energy use is as crucial as deploying renewable (or other low-carbon) technologies. The IPCC carried out a scenario comparison using a large number of integrated assessment models. From the scenarios available, we observe that the total amount of global energy use in 2050 has to be roughly the same level or a bit higher than it is today, with a margin of uncertainty. At the same time population will grow slightly between today and 2050. We therefore pragmatically chose the well-below-2° compatible benchmark to be “same energy use per capita in 2050 as the current global average”, which is 80 gigajoules per capita in TPES.

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