Belarus Belarus

Belarus takes a sharp 12-place decline in this year’s CCPI. The country now performs as 48th. Its performance ranks very low in the Renewable Energy category. It does, however, earn a high rating in the Energy Use category and a medium in GHG Emissions. Notably, the country drops 32 ranks in Climate Policy, receiving a very low rating.

The country has updated its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) goals in 2021 to, by 2030, reduce GHG Emissions by at least 35% from 1990 levels. This is the main improvement the CCPI experts can point to, though the targets lack long-term ambition. Belarus’ worse performance in this year`s CCPI is reflected in policy evaluation and can be seen in the Renewable Energy category, which shows a 50% distance from the 2030 target for a Paris Agreement-compatible pathway. One positive aspect the experts highlight is the ongoing effort to increase energy efficiency in different sectors, reflected in a high performance in the Energy Use category.

Our experts’ main demands for Belarus’ future climate policy are to raise the NDC’s ambition, adopt a national low-carbon development policy, and develop better cross-sectoral renewable energy production legislation.

The following national expert agreed to be mentioned as contributor for this year’s CCPI: Maria Falaleeva (Ecoproject).

Technical note: how to read the target comparison graph

The graph above shows the development of a country over the past years compared with its Paris compatible pathway and 2030 target. For all three quantitative categories of the CCPI, this visualisation gives an overview of where a country is right now, where it would need to be to fulfil the Paris Agreement promises and where it aims to be in 2030.

For GHG emissions per capita, the data includes LULUCF, as used for the emissions per capita indicator. This leads to the vast changes in emissions of some countries with high forest coverage.
The calculation of individual country target pathways is based on the common but differentiated convergence approach (CDC). It is based on the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities” laid forth in the Framework Convention on Climate Change. All Annex I countries therefore have a decreasing pathway from 1990 onwards, starting at that year’s emissions. 60 years later, in 2050, these countries are expected to reach net zero emissions. All other countries, which did not reach the level of global average emissions in 1990, are allowed to increase emissions until the average is reached. But by latest 2015 these countries, too, have decreasing pathways and 60 years to reach net zero. These pathways start from the global average.

The Renewable Energy data is given in per cent of Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) and includes hydro energy, consistent with the respective CCPI indicator. As global distribution of Renewables (especially solar and wind) only started in the 2000s, the pathways in this category start in 2010. All countries have an equal goal: 100% Renewables in 2050, each starting from its 2010 value.

For Energy Use the Primary Energy Supply per capita is shown. All pathways for this category start at country’s 1990 values and meet at global average of 80 gigajoules per capita in TPES.
For 2°C and 1.5°C scenarios, a decrease in emissions by reducing the (growth in) energy use is as crucial as deploying renewable (or other low-carbon) technologies. The IPCC carried out a scenario comparison using a large number of integrated assessment models. From the scenarios available, we observe that the total amount of global energy use in 2050 has to be roughly the same level or a bit higher than it is today, with a margin of uncertainty. At the same time population will grow slightly between today and 2050. We therefore pragmatically chose the well-below-2° compatible benchmark to be “same energy use per capita in 2050 as the current global average”, which is 80 gigajoules per capita in TPES.