Brazil Brazil

Brazil ranks 23rd in this year’s CCPI, vaulting 15 places from the previous year’s CCPI. It’s now among the ranking’s medium-performing countries. Brazil shows a mixed performance across the main CCPI categories, with a high rating for Renewable Energy, a medium in Energy Use and Climate Policy, and a low in GHG Emissions.

Since President Lula da Silva took office in January 2023, Brazilian climate policy has substantially turned, especially regarding policies on reducing deforestation and degradation in all Brazilian biomes. Such progress is a crucial step in preserving the Amazon, one of the world’s most important emission sinks. The new government also announced a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), which reverses the weakening of the target during the former administration. The NDC aims at returning to the absolute emissions level proposed in the original Brazilian NDC. It would do so by increasing the percentage reduction target from 50% to 53% below 2005 levels by 2030. Lula’s administration also committed to refining Brazil’s NDCs and starting an inclusive process towards a new NDC for 2025 that includes civil society and indigenous communities.

Relevant and Concrete Steps in the Right Direction

The CCPI country experts recognise relevant and concrete steps in the right direction to reverse some of the rollbacks during the previous administration. The experts positively emphasise that deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon have been reduced 50% in the first nine months of this year compared with the same period in 2022. This should lead to a significant emissions reduction in 2023. There is noticeable progress in the expansion of renewable electricity in previous years, especially wind and solar. Brazil currently has one of the highest shares of renewables globally, as renewables represent approximately 80% of electricity generation and 45% of the primary energy supply.

Despite the above, Brazil continues to expand its fossil fuel extraction and production and faces challenges in meeting its climate targets. It’s among the 20 countries with the largest developed oil reserves, and it currently plans to increase its gas and coal production and develop new oil platforms on its northern seas. This could make Brazil the world’s fourth largest oil producer. Such expanded fossil fuel production is clearly incompatible with the 1.5°C global target.

The experts also identify further obstacles on Brazil’s path towards alignment with 1.5°C, noting funding barriers, missing sectoral emissions limits and targets, and a lack of guidance on how to achieve its short-term (48% below 2005 in 2025), medium-term (53% below 2005 in 2030), and long-term (net zero in 2050) emissions reduction goals.

The experts indicate that concrete policies and actions, such as phasing out fossil fuel subsidies, ramping up renewable energy investments, and implementing stringent regulations to curb deforestation, would be needed to prompt substantial emission reductions.

Record Increase in the Installed Capacity of Renewables

Over the previous year, the experts saw a record increase in the installed capacity of solar and wind energy. Solar increased by 15 GW, mostly due to decentralized small-scale generation. A regulatory framework approval for microgeneration in January 2022 set a deadline for current tax exemptions that rushed the market to this boom. Wind generation contributed with capacity additions of more than 4 GW since 2021. The free market’s evolution has been a key factor for large-scale solar and wind that allows an alternative for projects to be built in addition to regulated auctions promoted by the government. Investments in wind and solar have increased and various tax benefits and incentives have been implemented to encourage renewable energy projects. However, our experts criticise Brazil’s over-reliance on hydropower, which raise environmental concerns and vulnerability to droughts.

The CCPI experts request a national climate change plan with a roadmap on how to implement the NDC targets. And they call for a fossil fuel phase-out and demand a shift from fossil to renewables subsidies.


Key Outcomes

  • Brazil ranks 23rd in this year’s CCPI
  • The CCPI country experts recognise relevant and concrete steps in the right direction to reverse some of the rollbacks during the previous administration
  • Key demands: national climate change plan with a roadmap on how to implement the NDC targets and a fossil fuel phase-out


CCPI experts

The following national experts agreed to be mentioned as contributors for this year’s CCPI:

Key Indicators

CCPI 2024: Target comparison