Brazil

Brazil ranks 28th in the current CCPI and stays among the medium-performing countries. As in the previous year, Brazil shows a mixed performance across the main CCPI categories, with a medium rating for Renewable Energy, Energy Use, and Climate Policy, and a low for GHG Emissions.

Since President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took office in January 2023, Brazil’s climate policy has improved, continuing to do so in this past year. Brazil is currently preparing its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) with 2035 targets as well as a Climate Plan (Plano Clima Mitigação) to implement its economy-wide target, including sector-specific actions. The initiative is being supported by stakeholder participation, including civil society, but some criticise its effectiveness throughout the process. Adopting a law on national adaptation, which sets out guidelines for the Adaptation Plan (Plano Clima Adaptação), is another improvement. The next milestone is the 2025 UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) to be held in Belém, Brazil.

Deforestation Rate and Renewables are Positives

The CCPI country experts note positive developments in Brazil’s climate policy, including strong measures against deforestation and a substantial reduction in the Amazon deforestation rate in 2023, which leads to lower emissions. These emissions reductions are not reflected in this year’s ranking because 2023 data on land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) is not yet available. Such data might improve Brazil’s rating in the GHG Emissions category. Deforestation should decline further in 2024, despite a record drought fuelled by climate change that led to extensive wildfires in all biomes.

The CCPI experts point to considerable growth in renewables, particularly wind and solar, which increased from 35 GW to 67 GW over the past two years (2022 and 2023). While small-scale solar generation increased, large-scale wind and solar projects in the open market, outside of government-sponsored regulated auctions, also saw substantial gains. However, the experts say that energy infrastructure remains inadequate, leading to wasted potential and logistical problems. Also, some wind projects in the northeast have faced criticism from local communities and legal challenges over human rights concerns.

Brazil’s Reliance on Fossil Fuels Contradicts Its Climate Policy

Currently, over 30% of fuels used in the country are cost-effective biofuels (bioethanol and biodiesel), with their expansion supported by national programs such as RenewBio (RenovaBio) and Fuel of the Future (Combustíveis do Futuro), which leads to innovations such as second-generation biofuels, cellulosic bioethanol, biomethane, and Sustainable Aviation Fuel.

Despite renewable energy gains, Brazil’s reliance on fossil fuels contradicts its climate policy. The government continues to support new oil and gas ventures with subsidies and infrastructure investment, particularly in the equatorial margin, while coal subsidies remain in place until 2040.  Brazil is among the 10 countries with the largest developed oil reserves, and it currently plans to increase its gas and oil production. The country’s reliance on hydropower also raises environmental concerns and drought vulnerability.

In energy use, the CCPI experts are greatly disappointed by the lack of energy use and efficiency standards for energy-intensive industries. The existing National Logistics Plan has an explicit target of reducing emissions, yet federal and state agencies’ rail and road concessions do not have to follow the plan’s goals.

The experts advocate for phasing out fossil fuels and enhancing energy infrastructure for stability and efficiency. They also call for ending deforestation, recovering native forests and degraded land, and stronger legislation against the indiscriminate use of pesticides.

Key Outcomes

CCPI Experts

The following national experts agreed to be mentioned as contributors for this year’s CCPI:

• Claudio Angelo, David Tsai  & Stela Herschmann (Observatório do Clima)
• Ricardo Baitelo (Instituto de Energia e Meio Ambiente)
• Dr. William Wills (Brazilian Climate Center)
• Eduardo Savio Martins (University of Ceara & FUNCEME)
• Emilly Caroline (Centro de Gestão e Estudos Estratégicos)
• Amazon Environmental Research Institute
• Instituto Climainfo