China

China ranks 55th in this year’s CCPI and is among the very low performing countries. China receives a very low rating in the GHG Emissions and Energy Use categories and a medium in Renewable Energy and Climate Policy.

Have Emissions Already Peaked?

China’s plan to peak GHG emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 remains unchanged. The country, in fact, may have already peaked emissions in 2023, with the CCPI country experts highlighting that emissions fell in the first quarter of 2024. The 1+N Framework from 2021 is China’s core climate change policy and provides structure for achieving its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). But the lack of quantitative targets makes it difficult to assess its effectiveness over time.

The CCPI experts highlight expansions in China’s ‘new three’ pillars—solar cells, lithium batteries, and electric vehicles—which are driving rapid growth in energy supply and renewable energy production. Despite these, coal power continues to expand in China, with ongoing approvals for large coal projects that contradict the country’s 2030 goal for peaking emissions. China is among the 10 countries with the largest developed oil, coal, and gas reserves, and it currently plans to increase its gas production.

The expansion of electric vehicles and related infrastructure under the New Energy Vehicle Development Plan (2021-2025) was a major development in transport for China. The government now aims for 20% of new vehicle sales to be electric by 2025.

Encouraging Cooperation Paired with Reluctant Ambition

In international climate politics, experts welcome China’s active promotion of international cooperation on climate change mitigation, backed by new policies such as the Sunnylands Statement, which strengthens international climate cooperation between China and the United States. However, the country appears reluctant to set more ambitious climate targets.

The CCPI experts recommend including absolute emissions reduction targets or percentage decrease targets in the new NDC and the 15th Five-Year Plan to provide more clarity and enforceability. They also advise planning for decreased coal power, considering the socio-economic impacts on coal-dependent communities. And they suggest strengthening the national carbon trading market and exploring other financial mechanisms to support carbon reduction efforts.

Key Outcomes

CCPI Experts

The following national experts agreed to be mentioned as contributors for this year’s CCPI:

• Muyi Yang (Ember)