Italy Italy

Italy drops three spots, to 30th in this year’s CCPI, continuously receiving medium ratings across all categories.

Specifically, the National Climate Policy indicator for Italy only shows a low performance. The country’s National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP), submitted in 2021, envisages an economy-wide emissions reduction target of 51% by 2030. Environmental NGOs criticise this goal in two ways. On the one hand, it is too low in view of the EU’s 55% target, which is mandatory for Italy. On the other, it is too low in view of the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement. These are why environmental NGOs call for a steeper reduction path. Despite the above, a positive aspect is seen in that over €70 billion for green transition is included in the NRRP.

In the area of renewable energy, the CCPI experts criticise long authorization processes for renewable plants, which block faster expansion. They also criticise the conditionality of the coal phase-out in 2025 on development of new gas plants and related infrastructure. The experts point to the possibility of skipping gas power and still reaching the 2025 coal phase-out if renewable energies are expanded more quickly. In February 2021, the government adopted the ‘superbonus’ for building renovations. This is a tax reduction equal to 110% of investments to make buildings more efficient. Experts criticise the absence of stringent efficiency criteria for receiving these incentives. More ambitious and stringent efficiency requirements are, therefore, demanded.

As in the previous year, the experts call for a phase-out on the sale of new cars with internal combustion engines by 2030. In international climate policy, the experts see no proactive role of the Italian government in international forums. Instead, it is merely following EU policy. Regarding the Italian G20 presidency, only a slight influence on the climate debate could be observed, which led to the overall medium rating in the International Climate Policy indicator.

The following national experts agreed to be mentioned as contributors for this year’s CCPI: Mauro Albrizio (Legambiente), Gianni Silvestrini (Kyoto Club)

Technical note: how to read the target comparison graph

The graph above shows the development of a country over the past years compared with its Paris compatible pathway and 2030 target. For all three quantitative categories of the CCPI, this visualisation gives an overview of where a country is right now, where it would need to be to fulfil the Paris Agreement promises and where it aims to be in 2030.

For GHG emissions per capita, the data includes LULUCF, as used for the emissions per capita indicator. This leads to the vast changes in emissions of some countries with high forest coverage.
The calculation of individual country target pathways is based on the common but differentiated convergence approach (CDC). It is based on the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities” laid forth in the Framework Convention on Climate Change. All Annex I countries therefore have a decreasing pathway from 1990 onwards, starting at that year’s emissions. 60 years later, in 2050, these countries are expected to reach net zero emissions. All other countries, which did not reach the level of global average emissions in 1990, are allowed to increase emissions until the average is reached. But by latest 2015 these countries, too, have decreasing pathways and 60 years to reach net zero. These pathways start from the global average.

The Renewable Energy data is given in per cent of Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) and includes hydro energy, consistent with the respective CCPI indicator. As global distribution of Renewables (especially solar and wind) only started in the 2000s, the pathways in this category start in 2010. All countries have an equal goal: 100% Renewables in 2050, each starting from its 2010 value.

For Energy Use the Primary Energy Supply per capita is shown. All pathways for this category start at country’s 1990 values and meet at global average of 80 gigajoules per capita in TPES.
For 2°C and 1.5°C scenarios, a decrease in emissions by reducing the (growth in) energy use is as crucial as deploying renewable (or other low-carbon) technologies. The IPCC carried out a scenario comparison using a large number of integrated assessment models. From the scenarios available, we observe that the total amount of global energy use in 2050 has to be roughly the same level or a bit higher than it is today, with a margin of uncertainty. At the same time population will grow slightly between today and 2050. We therefore pragmatically chose the well-below-2° compatible benchmark to be “same energy use per capita in 2050 as the current global average”, which is 80 gigajoules per capita in TPES.