Japan

Japan ranks 57th in this year’s CCPI, as a very low performing country. The country receives a low rating in GHG Emissions, Energy Use, and Renewable Energy and a very low in Climate Policy.

Japan submitted its third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in February 2025, aiming for a 60% reduction greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared with 2013. These ambitions are not aligned with the Paris Agreement. The CCPI country experts criticise the proposal for being like the one made by Keidanren (Japanese Business Federation), which is the largest industry group hindering ambitious climate policies in Japanese politics. They also note the lack of participation of civil society groups and groups affected.

First ETS is planned, but may come up short, while country lacks a just transition roadmap and fossil phase-out plan

For the first time, a compulsory Emission Trading System (ETS) as a part of government’s Green Transformation (GX) strategy is decided to be implemented in 2026, with an auction system for the utilities sector starting from 2033. However, the experts assume the carbon price will be very low compared with IEA recommendations and the ETS may have several faults. Processes in the coming years will show how effective it is.

Japan has no just transition roadmap with a fossil fuel phase-out plan. The experts criticise the policies and measures in place for protecting vested interests around carbon-intense industries such as steel and fossil-fired power generation. The experts also critique Japan’s continually using not wanting to rely on nuclear power as an excuse for burn fossil fuels. The experts point out that in the Government of Japan’s total climate and energy budget in 2025, fossil fuels increased from 2024, accounting for 38% of the total.

The Act on the Improvement of Energy Consumption Performance of Buildings has established insulation standards for residential buildings, to be applied in 2025. The experts welcome insulation standards but criticise them as too low.

Renewables grapple with low budget and misrepresentation, but are still progressing

Overall, there has been progress in renewable energy diffusion, especially with solar photovoltaics. Japan has recently introduced policies to promote offshore wind. The 7th Strategic Energy Plan positions renewable energy as a main energy source and aims to increase the share of renewable energy in domestic systems from the current 20% to 40–50% by 2040. The experts criticise that there has been output curtailment of renewable energy, which hinders the expansion. They also have concerns that some political parties unfairly overemphasise the cost of renewables and their adverse effects, such as destruction of nature due to large-scale solar projects. The renewables budget is very small, at only about 4% of the total federal budget. The renewable energy business sector is disadvantaged in market competition because of the governmental support for fossils and nuclear.

The capacity of biomass power generation in total electricity generation in Japan was 5.9% in 2024. Most biofuels and woody biomass are imported from countries such as Canada, where human rights violations and mass destruction of forests have been reported. Wood pellet imports increased 10% in the last year, totalling 6,381,000 tonnes.

The experts recommend that Japan revise the reduction targets set in the third NDC, and create and disclose a concrete roadmap and measures for emissions reduction, a targeted phase-out of inefficient coal-fired power plants by 2030, and transition to 100% renewable energy sources. The experts also call for a greater focus on establishing a comprehensive long-term strategy to address multiple crises. And they seek greater transparency when developing climate policies and allowing civil society, subnational governments, and other stakeholders to participate in policy development.

Key Outcomes

CCPI experts

The following national experts agreed to be mentioned as contributors for this year’s CCPI:

• Kiko Network
• Masayoshi Iyoda (350.org Japan)