Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan ranks 60th in this year’s CCPI, with a mix of low-end ratings: very low in GHG Emissions, Energy Use, and Renewable Energy, and low in Climate Policy.

Previous editions of the CCPI have noted that Kazakhstan relies heavily on fossil fuels. The CCPI national experts note that clear pathways toward a phase-out of coal, oil, and gas are not in sight for the country, hindering its progress in CO2 emissions reduction. With the Carbon Neutrality Strategy 2060, strong growth in renewable energy capacity, and an Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) established in 2013, the experts do welcome some climate policy features. However, insufficient ambition in formulating a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and a persistently low overall share of renewable energy in the country’s electricity generation pull down this year’s ranking. Plans to uphold high levels of fossil fuel subsidies, along with an ineffective ETS design resulting in a low carbon price, also affect the overall ranking.

Huge potential for wind and solar, but infrastructure and long-term strategy are greatly needed

While the final assessment of Kazakhstan’s national and international performance differs little from last year’s, the experts point to positive developments in policy schemes supporting the rapid expansion of renewables, which are expected to account for around 20–25% of electricity generation by 2030, depending on the assumed electricity demand growth rate. Notably, the creation of competitive auctions is cited as a mechanism facilitating the energy transformation in this country that has enormous wind and solar potential. However, the experts highlight the need to modernise the grid and develop a long-term strategy for coal phase-out and a transition from overall reliance on fossil fuels. The Ministry of Energy recently announced plans to add at least 8 GW of renewable energy, while officials note that new coal plants will also be built to safeguard energy supplies. Kazakhstan is among the 10 countries with the largest developed coal reserves, and it currently plans to increase its gas and oil production.

In energy use, the experts mention concrete technical baselines in conjunction with reinforced legislation accelerating the rollout of energy efficiency technologies as strengths. These come despite lagging implementation and weak monitoring, as the last Biennial Transparency Report (BTR) is criticised for its weak NDC tracking and issues with the quality of projections for forests and land use changes.

Upcoming Astana summit a positive amid minimal contributions and unambitious targets

Internationally, Kazakhstan contributes little to multilateral climate funds and lacks ambitious targets, making it far from being a frontrunner. Nevertheless, the experts observe attempts to increase institutional capacity and ambition within the UNFCCC, despite obstacles related to Umbrella Group membership. Additionally, the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources is preparing a Regional Environment Summit in Astana in mid-2026 and is tied with the UNFCCC process.

The experts affirm that renewable energy rollout is now well underway, with policies such as an auctioning mechanism mobilising capital and heightening investor participation in energy projects.

The experts’ demands focus on the continued burning of coal, which runs counter to the targets put forward in the Carbon Neutrality Strategy 2060. They call for faster integration of wind and solar in the grid, abolition of existing coal subsidies, and further localisation of climate targets to ensure proper implementation nationwide. They also agree on the need to modify the ETS to ensure that Central Asia’s only carbon pricing system realises its potential and helps reduce emissions significantly in the coming years.

Key Outcomes

CCPI experts

The following national experts agreed to be mentioned as contributors for this year’s CCPI:

• Dr. Tatiana Lanshina (Agora Energiewende)