Morocco Morocco

Morocco falls one spot to 8th but remains in the top 10 of this year’s CCPI and among the high-performing countries.

As in previous years, Morocco has a high ranking in most categories: GHG Emissions, Energy Use, and Climate Policy. The country’s Renewable Energy trend is rated high, but the very low rating in the Share of Renewable Energy in Energy Use and low-rated 2030 targets are responsible for an overall medium rating in this category.

Morocco updated its Nationally Determined Contribution in 2021. Its goal is now slightly improved, from 42% to a 45.5% reduction of GHG emissions by 2030, and rates as very high. Morocco’s energy sector is carbon-intensive. Fossil fuels maintain a high share of the total primary energy supply. The country, however, has a fossil fuel subsidy phase-out plan and is already actively cutting these subsidies. The CCPI experts see excellent potential for renewable energy production in Morocco, as many large-scale renewable energy projects are currently being realized under the Moroccan Solar Plan. The Plan aims to increase the installed solar power capacity from photovoltaic and from concentrated solar power to a total of 20% of installed capacity by 2030. The Moroccan Integrated Wind Program aims to increase installed wind power capacity to 20% of all installed capacity by 2030.

Aside from the utility-scale projects, the experts indicate there is also an opportunity for a decentralised energy transition. There are some initial experiences with this: Moroccan officials inaugurated the first fully solar-powered, grid-autonomous village in Africa in October 2019. The country has set the goal of producing 52% of its electricity needs with renewable energy by 2030. Combined with this is Morocco’s goal of reducing energy consumption by 15% by 2030, through enhancing energy efficiency. The experts see progress with investments in the public transport sector and energy efficiency regulations. Weak points are expressed in the agricultural and building sectors, and the experts demand better long-term strategies and more finance for the planned climate actions. In international climate policy, Morocco is recognised as an ambitious leader in negotiations and shows a commendable commitment to the Paris Agreement.

The following national experts agreed to be mentioned as contributors for this year’s CCPI: Hajar Khamlichi (Moroccan Alliance for Climate and Sustainable Development & CAN International); Dr. Mohammed-Saïd Karrouk (Université Hassan II de Casablanca); Yossef Ben Meir (High Atlas Foundation); Association Ecologia pour l’éducation à l’environnement

Technical note: how to read the target comparison graph

The graph above shows the development of a country over the past years compared with its Paris compatible pathway and 2030 target. For all three quantitative categories of the CCPI, this visualisation gives an overview of where a country is right now, where it would need to be to fulfil the Paris Agreement promises and where it aims to be in 2030.

For GHG emissions per capita, the data includes LULUCF, as used for the emissions per capita indicator. This leads to the vast changes in emissions of some countries with high forest coverage. The calculation of individual country target pathways is based on the common but differentiated convergence approach (CDC). It is based on the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities” laid forth in the Framework Convention on Climate Change. All Annex I countries therefore have a decreasing pathway from 1990 onwards, starting at that year’s emissions. 60 years later, in 2050, these countries are expected to reach net zero emissions. All other countries, which did not reach the level of global average emissions in 1990, are allowed to increase emissions until the average is reached. But by latest 2015 these countries, too, have decreasing pathways and 60 years to reach net zero. These pathways start from the global average.

The Renewable Energy data is given in per cent of Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) and includes hydro energy, consistent with the respective CCPI indicator. As global distribution of Renewables (especially solar and wind) only started in the 2000s, the pathways in this category start in 2010. All countries have an equal goal: 100% Renewables in 2050, each starting from its 2010 value.

For Energy Use the Primary Energy Supply per capita is shown. All pathways for this category start at country’s 1990 values and meet at global average of 80 gigajoules per capita in TPES. For 2°C and 1.5°C scenarios, a decrease in emissions by reducing the (growth in) energy use is as crucial as deploying renewable (or other low-carbon) technologies. The IPCC carried out a scenario comparison using a large number of integrated assessment models. From the scenarios available, we observe that the total amount of global energy use in 2050 has to be roughly the same level or a bit higher than it is today, with a margin of uncertainty. At the same time population will grow slightly between today and 2050. We therefore pragmatically chose the well-below-2° compatible benchmark to be “same energy use per capita in 2050 as the current global average”, which is 80 gigajoules per capita in TPES.