Turkey Turkey

Turkey drops one notch to 41st in this year’s CCPI and rates as a low-performing country.

Like in last year’s CCPI, the country receives a low rating in the GHG Emissions category and a high in Renewable Energy. In Energy Use, Turkey drops from low to a very low performer.

The Turkish Parliament finally ratified the Paris Agreement in October 2021, over 5 years after signing the treaty. The CCPI experts see this as this year’s major improvement in Turkey’s overall Climate Policy. Consequently, the country’s rank for the International Climate Policy indicator increases considerably and pulls the country out of the very low performers in this area.

At the same time as the ratification, the Turkish government announced the target of reaching net zero emissions by 2053. The Turkish Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), from October 2021, is assessed as insufficient. This is because its implementation would allow an increase of GHG emissions until 2030. The experts therefore urge the government to communicate an updated NDC with more ambitious science-based targets.

Turkey’s high rating for Renewable Energy owes to the current level and trend. However, the current Renewable Energy level indicator and Renewable Energy 2030 Target indicator find the country not in line with a well-below-2°C benchmark, and these need to be improved. Additionally, the experts note the Turkish government is strongly pushing coal generation while limiting support of renewable energy; thus, the full potential of renewables is not yet being capitalized on.

The experts highlight persisting low ambition in national policy, and the absence of long-term strategies. Accordingly, there is still no coal phase-out date (new coal plants are still planned), nor is there a date for ending coal subsidies.

The following national experts agreed to be mentioned as contributors for this year’s CCPI: Önder Algedik Climate (Energy and Environment Research Association), Özlem Katısöz (Climate Action Network (CAN) Europe) , Nuray Çaltı (Climate Change Policy and Research Association (CCPRA)), Özgür Gürbüz (Eksofer)

3rd of December 2021: After finding a calculation error in the CCPI 2022, we have revised our data. This effects Turkey`s ranking slightly (+1 rank)

Technical note: how to read the target comparison graph

The graph above shows the development of a country over the past years compared with its Paris compatible pathway and 2030 target. For all three quantitative categories of the CCPI, this visualisation gives an overview of where a country is right now, where it would need to be to fulfil the Paris Agreement promises and where it aims to be in 2030.

For GHG emissions per capita, the data includes LULUCF, as used for the emissions per capita indicator. This leads to the vast changes in emissions of some countries with high forest coverage.
The calculation of individual country target pathways is based on the common but differentiated convergence approach (CDC). It is based on the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities” laid forth in the Framework Convention on Climate Change. All Annex I countries therefore have a decreasing pathway from 1990 onwards, starting at that year’s emissions. 60 years later, in 2050, these countries are expected to reach net zero emissions. All other countries, which did not reach the level of global average emissions in 1990, are allowed to increase emissions until the average is reached. But by latest 2015 these countries, too, have decreasing pathways and 60 years to reach net zero. These pathways start from the global average.

The Renewable Energy data is given in per cent of Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) and includes hydro energy, consistent with the respective CCPI indicator. As global distribution of Renewables (especially solar and wind) only started in the 2000s, the pathways in this category start in 2010. All countries have an equal goal: 100% Renewables in 2050, each starting from its 2010 value.

For Energy Use the Primary Energy Supply per capita is shown. All pathways for this category start at country’s 1990 values and meet at global average of 80 gigajoules per capita in TPES.
For 2°C and 1.5°C scenarios, a decrease in emissions by reducing the (growth in) energy use is as crucial as deploying renewable (or other low-carbon) technologies. The IPCC carried out a scenario comparison using a large number of integrated assessment models. From the scenarios available, we observe that the total amount of global energy use in 2050 has to be roughly the same level or a bit higher than it is today, with a margin of uncertainty. At the same time population will grow slightly between today and 2050. We therefore pragmatically chose the well-below-2° compatible benchmark to be “same energy use per capita in 2050 as the current global average”, which is 80 gigajoules per capita in TPES.