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10 years into the Paris Agreement
Photo: Raimond Klavins | Unsplash

10 years into the Paris Agreement

The 2015 Paris Conference of the Parties (COP21) marked a decisive turning point in international climate policy. After the setback at COP15 in Copenhagen 6 years earlier, governments reached a landmark compromise laying the foundation for global climate action. The Paris Agreement established three key goals:

  • Keep global temperature rise well below 2°C and striving to limit it to 1.5°C
  • Strengthen adaptation capacities
  • Align financial flows with low-carbon development pathways

The CCPI was first published 20 years ago and, given the milestone’s significance, the methodology was adjusted to reflect the Agreement’s core principles. Now, 10 years later, we can draw new insights based on the CCPI’s Theory of Change. The CCPI assumes a sequential link between the indicators presented in the index, as effective climate policy drives the deployment of low-carbon technologies and advances structural decarbonisation. These changes are reflected in the CCPI’s Energy Use and Renewable Energy categories; they ultimately lead to declining greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through policy-driven mitigation.

Climate Policy performance

Countries across political lines are now, to some degree, committed to addressing the climate crisis. According to the 2025 NDC Synthesis Report, the Paris Agreement has substantially helped curb global emissions levels. National climate targets have has helped to curb emission levels significantly. This is a remarkable contrast to 10 years ago, when emissions projections only pointed upwards.Despite that finding, current global efforts remain insufficient for meeting the Paris goals. Progress is fragile and exposed to political and economic headwinds. Key challenges include:

  • US climate policy rollback following Donald Trump’s return to the White House, and the resulting pressure on other countries to slow their own transitions.
  • Weak leadership among other major economies, including the EU, where essential instruments such as the Emissions Trading System and Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism face persistent political resistance.

Still, positive examples of ambitious climate action exist.

Renewable Energy performance

Renewable energy has emerged as a clear success story for the Paris Agreement. At COP28 in Dubai, 198 Parties committed to tripling global renewable capacity by 2030. Achieving this target requires annual growth rates above 16.6 %, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).

As of the end of 2024, global installed renewable capacity had reached 4,443 GW; up 582 GW in that year and representing a 15.1% growth rate. Though progress remains strong, annual additions must now exceed 1,000 GW to stay on track for the 2030 goal.

Renewables’ share in total primary energy consumption has grown from just under 9% in 2015 to 11.8% in 2023. Declining generation costs have made renewable electricity increasingly competitive, driving electrification in key sectors such as transport and buildings. Of the 64 countries the CCPI assesses, 57 have increased their renewable energy shares, with seven[2] more than doubling them since 2015. India, for instance, has made substantial progress, achieving a 13.9% share of renewables in its total energy mix from 2015 to 2023, well above the global average. The UK illustrates how coherent policy and investment can transform an energy system, as its renewables share rose from 7.6% in 2015 to 14.6% in 2023. In contrast, Algeria and Saudi Arabia both continue to rely heavily on fossil fuels, with negligible renewables shares well under 1%.

Energy Use performance

Efficient energy use remains a key driver of emissions reductions and a prerequisite for achieving net-zero targets.

Per capita energy consumption continues to vary widely between (and within) countries. In Nigeria, average consumption is around 13 GJ per capita, while United Arab Emirates is 27× higher, at 350 GJ. Scenario analyses indicate that a global average of around 60 GJ per capita aligns with limiting warming to 1.5°C. This relation implies that, while some countries still can increase their energy consumption, others must substantially reduce it to stay within the global carbon budget.

In 25 of the 64 CCPI countries, total primary energy supply (TPES) per capita increased between 2015 and 2023. Steep growth was recorded in China (+28.8%), India (+22.7%), and Vietnam (+50.8%). However, some of these countries started from comparatively low levels, with parts of their populations still lacking access to reliable energy. These developments should therefore be evaluated not only in terms of climate impact, but also global equity.

In contrast, several high-consumption economies have reduced their energy use. Germany (−23.2%) recorded the fastest decline among major energy consumers, followed by the United Kingdom (−22.3%).

GHG emissions performance

GHG Emissions per Capita have only grown marginally since 2011, as shown in the graph below. Absolute emissions show a similar pattern. While total GHG emissions have continued to rise since 2005, the rate of increase has slowed significantly. In 2005–2015, global emissions grew by around 18%, though since the 2015 adoption of the Paris Agreement, the increase was about 9% through 2024. While GHG emissions are still rising, this is clearly happening at a slower pace since Paris.

The graph below illustrates how key indicators have evolved relative to 2005. Most notably, the rate of change reveals clear dynamics before and after Paris. Globally, renewable energy (RE) expanded almost twice as quickly in 2015–2024 as in the decade before Paris. The total primary energy supply (TPES), however, shows growth only slightly slowing. Yet the RE/TPES ratio has risen markedly, indicating that renewable capacity is increasingly displacing new fossil infrastructure rather than merely meeting additional demand.This trend is reinforced by the GHG/TPES indicator, which has shifted from a positive to a negative rate of change, suggesting the global energy mix has been gradually decarbonising since Paris.

This trend should not be misunderstood, despite the progress it indicates. Emissions are still rising and every additional tonne of CO₂, CH₄, andN₂O brings the world closer to critical tipping points.

So then, where do we really stand today?

  1. Renewable energy’s unprecedented expansion now fuels hopes that the renewables sector can gradually replace carbon-intensive electricity generation. This trend, along with the halving of annual GHG emissions growth rates and the recent plateau in per capita emissions, suggests a global turning point may be within reach.
  2. Despite the above, major disparities persist. Countries with emissions levels far above the global average must speed up their mitigation efforts to help bend the global curve downward.
  3. CCPI data show that transformation is possible. Positive shifts in countries such as the Netherlands, India, and the UK demonstrate that change can occur faster than expected when coherent policies, innovation, and societal commitment align. The technology, expertise, and scientific knowledge are all in place for this.
  4. Decisive and sustained political action is now required if these opportunities are to become actual and lasting emissions reductions.

[1] Volt, J., Roca Reina, J.C., Carlsson, J. and Toleikyte, A., Heat Pump Market: Country Fiches, European Commission, Petten, 2024, JRC137131

[2] Algeria, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE started from a very low level. The other four, especially Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and Estonia have made substantial progress and doubled despite their high shares.