Overcoming the Implementation and Ambition Gaps
Rapid, deep reductions in global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are the only way to prevent dangerous climate change and they are imperative for meeting the Paris Agreement climate goals. However, progress in reducing global emissions remains slow. The Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) identifies two critical factors – implementation gaps and ambition gaps.
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are vital instruments for guiding the adoption of more ambitious climate actions at the national level. NDCs present countries’ self-determined climate targets for limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C and are critical for guiding emissions-reducing measures. The targets should reflect countries’ highest possible ambitions. However, the latest UN Emissions Gap Report shows that failing to increase new NDCs ambitions and to start implementing them will immediately set the world on course for a 2.6–3.1°C temperature increase. This is why the need for more ambitious and comprehensive climate action is inescapable. The Paris Agreement requires countries to submit new NDCs by February 2025.
The CCPI compares the climate change mitigation efforts of 63 countries and the EU. These entities account for over 90% of the world’s GHG emissions. The CCPI includes countries’ emissions per capita in line with the Index’s interpretation of a Paris Agreement pathway at the country level. In this way, the CCPI helps to track countries’ progress and aims to increase their ambition toward tackling climate change.
Implementation gap: Many CCPI countries are not on a Paris-aligned pathway
One CCPI indicator, comparing the current per capita GHG emissions level with a Paris-aligned pathway, shows the majority of surveyed CCPI countries have emissions exceeding the Paris temperature goal. Here, you can see a substantial implementation gap – that between the current level and Paris-aligned pathway.[1]
Overall, only 22 of the 64 surveyed CCPI countries (including the EU) are on track, while 42 are lagging. India and the United Kingdom are two that are on track. India has maintained low GHG emissions per capita since 1990. The level is well below the global average and the CCPI’s Paris-compatible pathway for the country. The UK has consistently reduced its GHG emissions since 1990 and is keeping pace with its CCPI’s Paris-compatible pathway. In fact, the UK has been below the level for its pathway for almost a decade. In contrast, petro-state Saudi Arabia’s current per capita GHG emissions are 14.6 tonnes higher than those for its CCPI Paris-compatible pathway. This country should make a 180-degree turn.
Ambition gap: New NDCs must be more ambitious
To keep the 1.5°C goal within reach, the next round of NDCs must close the existing ambition gap – the distance between the emissions that countries’ NDCs imply and a Paris-aligned pathway. Here, we assess 2030 GHG emission targets compared with the CCPI’s Paris-compatible pathway.
Overall, the CCPI countries’ 2030 targets are insufficient. Only 19 have an adequate target, while 45 fall short. Chile and Denmark are two that are sufficiently ambitious. Chile started with negative GHG emissions in 1990 and set itself a 2030 target well-below the CCPI’s Paris-compatible pathway. Denmark, however, started with per capita GHG emissions exceeding 15 tonnes in 1990. It then set itself a 2030 target slightly more ambitious than the those of its Paris-compatible pathway. China is not sufficiently ambitious, with a 2030 target over double what’s necessary per the CCPI pathway. Emissions reductions are critical for China, as the world’s largest absolute emitter of GHG emissions. Saudi Arabia is, once again, the overall laggard, with a weak 2030 target.
Ambitious targets can also support the implementation of climate action and are urgently needed. An example is the EU’s climate goal of reducing GHG emissions by 55%+ by 2030 compared with 1990 levels. This target has catalysed the Fit for 55 package, which aims to facilitate its implementation. However, setting an ambitious target alone does not guarantee effective implementation.
What the new NDCs should look like
Considering both the implementation and ambition gaps, there is a clear need for more ambitious NDCs.[2] Countries should increase their 2030 targets’ ambition and set Paris-aligned targets for 2035.
New NDCs must also reflect the results of the first Global Stocktake (GST) concluded at COP28 in Dubai and that assessed the collective progress toward the Paris targets. The GST recognized was the transition away from fossil fuels. Along with the need to triple global renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030 was the demand to accelerate global climate action.
Incorporating GST outcomes into the NDCs places the focus on implementation. Increasing renewable energy capacity and focusing on energy efficiency, while phasing out fossil fuels, is the straightforward way to reduce emissions. However, many NDCs still lack the concrete details needed to achieve their goals. To make these commitments more actionable, NDCs should include specific policies for increasing renewable energy capacity, improving energy efficiency, and facilitating a fossil fuel phase-out, as the GST proposed.
Countries’ success in both implementation through specific policies (increasing renewable energy and pushing for more energy efficiency) and ambition (increasing their 2030 and 2035 targets) will lead to emission reductions and be reflected in improved CCPI rankings.
[1] We calculate the pathways based on the common but differentiated responsibilities principle: “Common” because all countries must reduce their per capita emissions to the same level (in this case net zero) within the same time period, and “differentiated” because developed countries started on this path from 1990, while developing countries do so once they reach the global average per capita emissions. More information can be found here: https://ccpi.org/download/climate-change-performance-index-2024-background-and-methodology/
[2] Chennamaneni, L., Lydén, P., 2024, A Primer on Nationally Determined Contributions 3.0